Tropical Storm Warning Posted For A Portion Of Louisiana’s Coast [Updated]
[Updated as of 10:00 AM CDT] The official track forecast for what is expected to become Tropical Storm Cindy shifted further to the west as of the 10 AM advisory. Tropical storm warnings have been extended westward in response to this change in the anticipated track.
Tropical storm warnings now cover the entire Louisiana coast and include the upper Texas coast as far west as High Island. A Tropical storm watch has been issued from High Island Texas to San Luis Pass.
The system itself has not strengthened since the 4 AM advisory. The maximum sustained winds are still at 40 mph. However, there is no closed circulation and that is why the storm has yet to be classified as a tropical storm.
The system continues to move to the north west at 9 mph. It is then expected to take a more northerly turn late Wednesday evening or early Thursday when it is very near the extreme southwest coast of Louisiana.
The biggest threat from this system will most likely be heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals across southeast Louisiana could be in excess of one foot during the next three days. Rainfall totals across Acadiana and into Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas aren't anticipated to be that high. Forecasters are suggesting storm totals of three to five inches.
Storm surge with this system is expected to be three to five feet with a strong onshore fetch from the storm. This could slow the flow of rivers and coulees into the Gulf of Mexico. Some flooding is likely however, wide spread flooding such as the area experience in August should not be the rule.
Here are the details of the 10:00 AM Advisory from the Hurricane Center.
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHESpdated as of 4:00 AM CDT] The National Hurricane Center has extended the Tropical Storm Warning along the Louisiana coast westward this morning.
The warned area now includes the coastline between Cameron Louisiana and Intracoastal City Louisiana. There is already a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the rest of the Louisiana coastline eastward to the mouth of the Pearl River.
As of the 4:00 AM Advisory the system had still not been classified as a tropical storm. The center of the system had wobbled in a westerly direction overnight but satellite guidance now suggests the system is moving in a northwesterly direction at 9 mph. The storm is expected to take a more northerly course by Wednesday night or Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions could be felt on the southeast Louisiana coast as early as Tuesday afternoon. Currently, tropical storm conditions extend to the east and northeast of the center approximately 200 miles.
Satellite images confirm that most of the heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity is to the east of the center of circulation. That means that the heavier rainfall totals will likely occur in southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and coastal Alabama. Rainfall amounts in those areas should average between four and eight inches.
In the Lafayette and Lake Charles area rainfall amounts of two to four inches should be common with isolated locations picking up as much as six inches of rain between late this afternoon and Friday morning.
Here are the 4 AM CDT statistics from the Hurricane Center.
LOCATION...24.8N 90.1W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
A broad area of low pressure is currently moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to become a tropical cyclone by later this evening or early tomorrow. Should that cyclone reach the tropical storm threshold it would be called Tropical Storm Cindy.
The Tropical Storm Warning runs from Intracoastal City Louisiana eastward to the mouth of the Pearl River. This includes the coastal parishes of Vermilion, Iberia, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Lafourche, Plaquemines, and St. Bernard.
The Tropical Storm Watch associated with this storm runs from Intracoastal City westward to High Island Texas. This includes a portion of Vermilion Parish as well as Cameron Parish.
The official track forecast from the Hurricane Center would bring the center of this tropical system on shore between Lake Charles and Lafayette. However, most of the strong winds and heavy rain with this storm are well to the east of the center of circulation.
As of now the greatest threat from this system appears to be the threat of heavy rainfall. Forecasters do anticipate the system will strengthen some before making landfall. However, there is a consensus that this system will not reach hurricane strength before it crosses the coast late Tuesday or more likely on Wednesday.
Here are the statistics from the National Hurricane Center as of the 4 PM Advisory.
LOCATION...24.7N 88.7W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES