Tropical Threat Increases
The fact that there is a hurricane and three other substantial tropical waves in the waters of the Atlantic Ocean is not surprising. This is the time of the year when sea surface temperatures are close to their peak and the winds aloft are most conducive for storms to spin up in the Atlantic Basin.
The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor Hurricane Gert and the three waves that appear to be a much bigger threat to land than the aforementioned hurricane. The forecast track of Gert brings that system out into the North Atlantic where it will only be a concern to shipping.
The three tropical waves in the lower latitudes of the Atlantic are continuing to move in a general westward motion toward the Caribbean Sea and perhaps landfall in the United States, Mexico, or Central America.
Invest 91L is the system that’s closest to land. It has been given a 70% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days. The tropical forecast models are in agreement that this system should stay south of the Gulf of Mexico.
Invest 92L the storm system that’s right behind 91L could be more problematic for the islands of the Caribbean and perhaps the United States coast. Forecast models have that system taking a more northerly track that would bring the system just north of Puerto Rico. This system has been given a 50% probability to strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.
The third tropical wave is not a vigorous as the other two. It is also the furthest away. It’s just off the coast of Africa and forecasters are giving this system a 40% probability of growing strong enough to be classified as a tropical cyclone. This disturbance is expected to follow a similar track as Invest 92L at least for the next few days.